mscroggs.co.uk
mscroggs.co.uk

subscribe

Blog

Archive

Show me a random blog post
 2019 
 2018 
 2017 
 2016 
 2015 
 2014 
 2013 
 2012 

Tags

triangles london games bubble bobble go map projections twitter football frobel gerry anderson approximation cross stitch hexapawn oeis matt parker fractals inline code manchester science festival european cup countdown stickers christmas card captain scarlet pythagoras golden ratio draughts raspberry pi news propositional calculus game of life tennis weather station polynomials sorting menace royal baby geometry rhombicuboctahedron plastic ratio sound ternary javascript nine men's morris binary palindromes final fantasy craft bodmas game show probability folding tube maps probability reuleaux polygons braiding dragon curves a gamut of games asteroids world cup christmas light flexagons trigonometry martin gardner interpolation misleading statistics speed manchester pizza cutting sport mathsteroids data books london underground hats accuracy logic platonic solids mathslogicbot machine learning dataset estimation graph theory realhats puzzles rugby electromagnetic field latex golden spiral php curvature error bars chess chalkdust magazine python reddit noughts and crosses wool statistics pac-man national lottery folding paper coins video games harriss spiral aperiodical big internet math-off chebyshev radio 4 arithmetic dates programming the aperiodical people maths

Archive

Show me a random blog post
▼ show ▼
 2018-06-16 

World Cup stickers 2018, pt. 2

This year, like every World Cup year, I've been collecting stickers to fill the official Panini World Cup sticker album. Back in March, I calculated that I should expect it to cost £268.99 to fill this year's album (if I order the last 50 stickers). As of 6pm yesterday, I need 47 stickers to complete the album (and have placed an order on the Panini website for these).

So... How much did it cost?

In total, I have bought 1781 stickers (including the 47 I ordered) at a cost of £275.93. The plot below shows the money spent against the number of stickers stuck in, compared with the what I predicted in March.
To create this plot, I've been keeping track of exactly which stickers were in each pack I bought. Using this data, we can look for a few more things. If you want to play with the data yourself, there's a link at the bottom to download it.

Swaps

The bar chart below shows the number of copies of each sticker I got (excluding the 47 that I ordered). Unsurprisingly, it looks a lot like random noise.
The sticker I got most copies of was sticker 545, showing Panana player Armando Cooper.
Armando Cooper on sticker 545
I got swaps of 513 different stickers, meaning I'm only 169 stickers short of filling a second album.

First pack of all swaps

Everyone who has every done a sticker book will remember the awful feeling you get when you first get a pack of all swaps. For me, the first time this happened was the 50th pack. The plot below shows when the first pack of all swaps occurred in 500,000 simulations.
Looks like I was really quite unlucky to get a pack of all swaps so soon.

Duplicates in a pack

In all the 345 packs that I bought, there wasn't a single pack that contained two copies of the same sticker. In fact, I don't remember ever getting two of the same sticker in a pack. For a while I've been wondering if this is because Panini ensure that packs don't contain duplicates, or if it's simply very unlikely that they do.
If it was down to unlikeliness, the probability of having no duplicates in one pack would be:
\begin{align} \mathbb{P}(\text{no duplicates in a pack}) &= 1 \times\frac{681}{682}\times\frac{680}{682}\times\frac{679}{682}\times\frac{678}{682}\\ &= 0.985 \end{align}
and the probability of none of my 345 containing a duplicate would be:
\begin{align} \mathbb{P}(\text{no duplicates in 345 packs}) &= 0.985^{345}\\ &= 0.00628 \end{align}
This is very very small, so it's safe to conclude that Panini do indeed ensure that packs do not contain duplicates.

The data

If you'd like to have a play with the data yourself, you can download it here. Let me know if you do anything with it...

Similar posts

World Cup stickers 2018, pt. 3
World Cup stickers 2018
World Cup stickers
Euro 2016 stickers

Comments

Comments in green were written by me. Comments in blue were not written by me.
 Add a Comment 


I will only use your email address to reply to your comment (if a reply is needed).

Allowed HTML tags: <br> <a> <small> <b> <i> <s> <sup> <sub> <u> <spoiler> <ul> <ol> <li>
To prove you are not a spam bot, please type "c" then "o" then "s" then "i" then "n" then "e" in the box below (case sensitive):
© Matthew Scroggs 2019