mscroggs.co.uk
mscroggs.co.uk

subscribe

Blog

 2014-04-11 
As well as letters games, the contestants on Countdown also take part in numbers games. Six numbers are chosen from the large numbers (25,50,75,100) and small numbers (1-10, two cards for each number) and a total between 101 and 999 (inclusive) is chosen by CECIL. The contestants then use the six numbers, with multiplication, addition, subtraction and division, to get as close to the target number as possible.
The best way to win the numbers game is to get the target exactly. This got me wondering: is there a combination of numbers which allows you to get every total between 101 and 999? And which combination of large and small numbers should be picked to give the highest chance of being able to get the target?
To work this out, I got my computer to go through every possible combination of numbers, trying every combination of operations. (I had to leave this running overnight as there are a lot of combinations!)

Getting every total

There are 61 combinations of numbers which allow every total to be obtained. These include the following (click to see how each total can be made):
By contrast, the following combination allows no totals between 101 and 999 to be reached:
The number of attainable targets for each set of numbers can be found here.

Probability of being able to reach the target

Some combinations of numbers are more likely than others. For example, 1 2 25 50 75 100 is four times as likely as 1 1 25 50 75 100, as (ignoring re-orderings) in the first combination, there are two choices for the 1 tile and 2 tile, but in the second combination there is only one choice for each 1 tile. Different ordering of tiles can be ignored as each combination with the same number of large tiles will have the same number of orderings.
By taking into account the relative probability of each combination, the following probabilities can be found:
Number of large numbersProbability of being able to reach target
00.964463439
10.983830962
20.993277819
30.985770510
40.859709475
So, in order to maximise the probability of being able to reach the target, two large numbers should be chosen.
However, as this will mean that your opponent will also be able to reach the target, a better strategy might be to pick no large numbers or four large numbers and get closer to the target than your opponent, especially if you have practised pulling off answers like this.
Edit: Numbers corrected.
Edit: The code used to calculate the numbers in this post can now be found here.

Similar posts

Countdown probability
Pointless probability
Big Internet Math-Off stickers
World Cup stickers 2018, pt. 3

Comments

Comments in green were written by me. Comments in blue were not written by me.
 2016-07-20 
@Francis Galiegue: I've pushed a version of the code to https://github.com/mscroggs/countdown-numbers-game
Reply
Matthew
 2016-07-20 
@Francis Galiegue: Sadly, I lost the code I used when I had laptop problems. However, I can remember what it did, so I shall recreate it and put it on GitHub.
Reply
Matthew
 2016-07-20 
If you could, I'd love to have the code you used to do this exhaustive search?

I'm a fan of the game myself (but then I'm French, so to me it's the original, "Des chiffres et des lettres"), but for the numbers game, this is pretty much irrelevant to the language and country :)
Reply
Francis Galiegue
 Add a Comment 


I will only use your email address to reply to your comment (if a reply is needed).

Allowed HTML tags: <br> <a> <small> <b> <i> <s> <sup> <sub> <u> <spoiler> <ul> <ol> <li>
To prove you are not a spam bot, please type "hparg" backwards in the box below (case sensitive):
 2014-04-06 
On Countdown, contestants have to make words from nine letters. The contestants take turns to choose how many vowels and consonants they would like. This got me wondering which was the best combination to pick in order to get a nine letter word.
Assuming the letters in countdown are still distributed like this, the probability of getting combinations of letters can be calculated. As the probability throughout the game is dependent on which letters have been picked, I have worked out the probability of getting a nine letter word on the first letters game.

The probability of YODELLING

YODELLING has three vowels and six consonants. There are 6 (3!) ways in which the vowels could be ordered and 720 (6!) ways in which the consonants can be ordered, although each is repeated at there are two Ls, so there are 360 distinct ways to order the consonants. The probability of each of these is:
$$\frac{21\times 13\times 13\times 6\times 3\times 5\times 4\times 8\times 1}{67\times 66\times 65\times 74\times 73\times 72\times 71\times 70\times 69}$$
So the probability of getting YODELLING is:
$$\frac{6\times 360\times 21\times 13\times 13\times 6\times 3\times 5\times 4\times 8\times 1}{67\times 66\times 65\times 74\times 73\times 72\times 71\times 70\times 69} = 0.000000575874154$$

The probability of any nine letter word

I got my computer to find the probability of every nine letter word and found the following probabilities:
ConsonantsVowelsProbability of nine letter word
090
180
270
360.000546
450.019724
540.076895
630.051417
720.005662
810.000033
900
So the best way to get a nine letter word in the first letters game is to pick five consonants and four vowels.

Similar posts

Countdown probability, pt. 2
Pointless probability
Big Internet Math-Off stickers
World Cup stickers 2018, pt. 3

Comments

Comments in green were written by me. Comments in blue were not written by me.
 Add a Comment 


I will only use your email address to reply to your comment (if a reply is needed).

Allowed HTML tags: <br> <a> <small> <b> <i> <s> <sup> <sub> <u> <spoiler> <ul> <ol> <li>
To prove you are not a spam bot, please type "d" then "e" then "c" then "a" then "g" then "o" then "n" in the box below (case sensitive):

Archive

Show me a random blog post
 2019 

Jul 2019

Big Internet Math-Off stickers

Jun 2019

Proving a conjecture

Apr 2019

Harriss and other spirals

Mar 2019

realhats

Jan 2019

Christmas (2018) is over
 2018 
▼ show ▼
 2017 
▼ show ▼
 2016 
▼ show ▼
 2015 
▼ show ▼
 2014 
▼ show ▼
 2013 
▼ show ▼
 2012 
▼ show ▼

Tags

matt parker noughts and crosses tennis manchester inline code martin gardner asteroids big internet math-off manchester science festival geometry rhombicuboctahedron fractals london probability binary javascript cross stitch gerry anderson realhats braiding sorting weather station chebyshev ternary data light sound raspberry pi countdown national lottery wool football news game show probability people maths video games triangles bodmas royal baby pizza cutting accuracy pac-man oeis nine men's morris curvature coins harriss spiral game of life propositional calculus rugby final fantasy reuleaux polygons christmas arithmetic error bars a gamut of games speed dataset golden spiral london underground flexagons estimation mathsjam frobel sport puzzles map projections radio 4 chess craft platonic solids bubble bobble electromagnetic field logic draughts interpolation plastic ratio approximation graph theory hexapawn folding tube maps php christmas card chalkdust magazine books captain scarlet hats stickers mathslogicbot statistics the aperiodical folding paper python go reddit world cup latex twitter programming golden ratio polynomials dates mathsteroids palindromes misleading statistics machine learning trigonometry menace pythagoras games european cup dragon curves

Archive

Show me a random blog post
▼ show ▼
© Matthew Scroggs 2019