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Downing Street

A knot of spectators in Downing Street was watching members of the Cabinet as they arrived for a critical meeting.
"Who's that?" I asked my neighbour, as a silk-hatted figure, carrying rolled umbrella, rang the bell at No. 10. "Is it the Minister of Maths?"
"Yes," he said.
"Quite right," said a second spectator. "The Minister of Maths it is. Looks grim, doesn't he?"
The first of the speakers tells the truth three times out of four. The second tells the truth four times out of five.
What is the probability that the gentleman in question was in fact the Minister of Maths?

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If you enjoyed this puzzle, check out Sunday Afternoon Maths IX,
puzzles about probability, or a random puzzle.

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